The State of Pará

The international economy, after showing good growth in 2017, when it exceeded the forecasts for growth of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of October 2017, continued to show positive signs for the world‘s Gross Domestic Product in the first months of 2018, as the continuation of the trajectory of strengthening industrial production and global trade. In the WEO of April 2018, the IMF projected growth for the world economy of 3.9% for the years 2018 and 2019, which represents growth of 0.10 pp in relation to that observed in 2017. This increase is associated the recovery of emerging markets and a resilient growth of advanced economies.

IMF figures show that advanced economies grew by 1.7 percent in 2016 and 2.3 percent in 2017, and are expected to grow 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019. These estimates reflect the expansionary fiscal policy of the United States and the stronger prospects for the euro zone and Japan.

The IMF revised the projection for US GDP growth for the years 2018 and 2019. According to the WEO, the US economy is expected to grow by 2.9% and 2.7% in these years, respectively, which represents a a growth of approximately 0.6 pp compared to that observed in 2017.

This estimate is anchored in a stronger strengthening of external demand and the macroeconomic impact resulting from the December 2017 tax reform. In emerging markets and developing economies, growth expectancy is 4.9% in 2018 and 5.1% in 2019. The expected percentages, higher than the 4.8% observed in 2017, mainly reflect the confidence in a strong and continuous economic performance of Emerging Asia, which remains the main responsible for the growth of the global economy. In China, the forecast is for a slight reduction in growth, from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019. However, for India, which has increased GDP in 6.7% in 2017, the Fund projected growth of 7.4% to 2018 and 7.8% to 2019. For Latin America and the Caribbean, whose growth was 1.3% in 2017, the growth projection for 2018 and 2019 is 2% and 2.8%, respectively.

In the national scenario, GDP grew by 1% in 2017. The IMF estimated growth of 2.3% for 2018 and 2.5% for 2019, crediting this performance to the increase in private consumption and investments. This outlook is above that projected by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) in the June 2018 Inflation Report, 1.6%. This performance reflects the slowdown in activity at the beginning of the current year, as well as the position of corporate and consumer confidence indicators and the prospects of the impact of the shutdown in the cargo transportation sector, which took place at the end of May this year.

As for prices, the BCB expects the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to be around 3.9% for 2018, 4.1% for 2019 and 4.0% for 2020.

The economic scenario in Pará shows positive signs of resumption of economic growth. According to data from the BCB, the economic activity index (IBC-Br) of the economy of Para, in April (seasonally adjusted data), grew by 1.81% in relation to April of the previous year.

In relation to the volume of sales in the local commerce, the data of April of 2018 show the growth of 5,32%. Regarding the balance of Pará‘s credit operations in the Financial System; the data for May 2018 showed an evolution of 7.68%. In this scenario, the prospects for an exchange rate increase are positive for the exports of Pará, since the mineral extractive sector has a strong representation in the GDP of Pará. In relation to inflation, according to the IBGE data, the IPCA, calculated in the Metropolitan Region of Belém, was 0.28%, despite the downturn in the cargo transportation sector, being lower than in April , 07p.p.