The State of Pará

The international economic scenario maintained a positive growth outlook during 2018, although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised the estimate of world GDP growth in the last quarter by -0.2 pp. The new forecast of the Fund published in the World Economic Outlook (WEO)[1] of October is that the global economy grows 3.7% in the biennium 2018-2019. The reduction in the IMF‘s growth estimate is associated, among other reasons, with the weaker outlook for emerging markets and developing economies.

The WEO also shows that the IMF‘s expectation for the advanced economies is 2.4% and 2.1% for 2018 and 2019, respectively. For emerging markets and developing economies the estimate is 4.7% for the same biennium. For Emerging Asia, the increase projection is 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.

In the national scenario, the expectations of the Central Bank of Brazil published in the December Inflation Report for the GDP of the Brazilian economy were revised by -0.1 percentage points, from 1.4% to 1.3% in 2018. For In the year of 2019 the BC projection was maintained at 2.4%. The report also highlights that this perspective is conditional on a scenario of continuity of the necessary reforms and adjustments in the Brazilian economy, especially those of fiscal nature.

In relation to the price level, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) closed the year 2018 at 3.75%, within the target set by the federal government for the year (4.5%) and below the estimate of the which was around 4.09% in mid-September. According to the Focus Survey conducted by the BC, the market forecast for the IPCA is around 4.07% and 4.0% for 2019 and 2020, respectively.

In the regional scenario, Pará‘s economy continues to show positive signs of resumption of economic growth. According to the Amazon Foundation for Studies and Research (FAPESPA), the GDP of Pará must show real growth around 1.96% in 2018. The regional economic activity index of Pará (IBCR-Pa) presented in October of 2018 positive change of 3.51% in relation to October 2017 (seasonally adjusted data), which reinforces the gradual acceleration of the local economy. Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) show that the state‘s industrial production grew by 11.79% in October 2018 in relation to the same period of the previous year. This result was influenced by the mineral extractive sector (iron ore), which is the main commodity exported by Pará.

Regarding local commerce, data released by IBGE‘s Monthly Trade Survey (PMC) show that the Paraense economy obtained a 6.6% increase in sales in the period up to October 2018. In comparison with the same month of the previous year the variation was positive in 7.4%. These numbers are expected to improve, as there has historically been an increase in household demand over the Christmas period.
Regarding inflation, IBGE data for December 2018 show that the variation of the IPCA calculated in the metropolitan area of ​​Belém in the accumulated of the last 12 months was 3.00%. This result is 1.86pp higher than in the previous year (1.14%). In December inflation in the state was 0.48%.

In terms of fiscal management, Pará presents a good concept with the National Treasury Secretariat (STN). According to the National Treasury‘s 2018 Sub-National Treasury Finances Bulletin, the State presents the "B" rating of CAPAG (Classification of Payment Capacity). The methodology of CAPAG was reformulated at the end of 2017 in accordance with the Ministry of Finance Ordinance - MF 501/2017 and was composed of indicators: indebtedness, current savings and liquidity. The concepts vary between: A and B that indicate good fiscal situation and C and D that indicate otherwise. This note is important because it defines whether the Entity is eligible to obtain guarantee or Union endorsement in new lending operations.

[1] World Economic Outlook - relatório trimestral sobre expectativas econômicas, divulgado pelo FMI.